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Đánh bạcuy tín:Asset-backed securities sales seen dropping 15%

Đánh bạcuy tín:Asset-backed securities sales seen dropping 15%

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NEW YORK: Sales of US asset-backed securities (ABS) will fall nearly 15% next year to about US$210bil (RM929bil), as rising interest rates deter some borrowers and a slowing economy squeezes consumers, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

If that forecast is right, next year’s new supply of ABS will be the second consecutive year of declines.

The slowdown is expected to hit nearly all major types of ABS, including bonds backed by auto loans and credit card debt, the analysts wrote in a recent report.

Deutsche Bank isn’t alone in expecting less issuance next year.

Bank of America Corp foresees a 7% drop in volume against this year’s full expected issuance, analysts wrote in a late November report.

One of the biggest drivers of the lower outlook is rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has hiked rates by 4.25 percentage points this year from essentially zero.

Higher interest rates mean borrowers looking to raise money will need to offer investors more yield, a likely deterrent for many companies.

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And rising interest rates could make alternatives like simply drawing on a line of credit more appealing to at least some companies.

“When interest rates are rising, drawing on your credit line at a bank often starts to look like a better option for those entities with established credit lines set up prior to last year’s rate spikes,” said Vadim Verkhoglyad, vice-president and head of research publication at market data company dv01.

Another big driver of next year’s outlook is the squeeze on household finances. Many have already run through their pandemic savings and might pull back on purchases, such as new vehicles.

That would mean taking out fewer loans for cars, phones and other products.

The finances of low-income households in particular are likely to weaken, and have already begun diverging from those higher-income or prime households.

While that divergence is to be expected in in a weakening economy, it’s somewhat unusual today because it’s occurring at a time when unemployment remains near historic lows and nominal wage growth is steady, said Patrick Wacker, a portfolio manager at Insight Investment Management.

The reason for that – sky-high inflation that’s driven up prices on everything from food to rent – leaves some asset-backed segments such as unsecured consumer lending especially vulnerable, particularly if there’s a recession next year.

“Unsecured consumer ABS hasn’t been through a recession, unlike other sectors, so it’s relatively untested,” said Wacker.

As the economy slows down with 2023 approaching, some investors say that spreads on ABS haven’t tightened nearly as much as corporate credit spreads over the last two months, which has led to relatively wide ABS spreads compared to similarly rated corporate credit.

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